May- Market Report - GCL Food Ingredients

Protein

In the first quarter of 2019 cattle births have totalled up to 676,000 per head – a 0.4% increase from the same period last year. This has mainly been driven by a relatively mild spring.
The increased number of registered beef animals during Q1 of this year may lead to a slight uplift in beef production in 2020.
The calves during 2019 Q1 would have been born in April – June of last year with the issues of drought and grass quality. This will impact fertility rates in calf registration date from April onwards

Global lamb prices are increasing after a period of stability.
New Zealand has more import than Australia in the UK and other EU markets. This is because of market access.
Reduced supply in New Zealand would cause reduced volumes available for export. This may offer an opportunity for British lamb exports to increase but forecasted supplies are tight. The volume of UK lamb sent to the EU could reduce availability.

UK pig production forecast to rise by 1% in 2019 to 935,000 tonnes according to AHDB’s latest market outlook.
Disregarding increasing availability, AHDB said rising export demand should support higher prices. This is seen with China expecting to increase UK imports.

The UK’s salmon population is reaching “crisis point” as wild catches in Scotland have fallen to their lowest level since records began in 1952.
The total catch in 2018 was 33% below the five-year average. This significant decline has been caused by the changes to the environment and ecosystems.
In addition, the impact of human activity across the northern hemisphere creates further risk for the species.

Spanish olive oil production reached 1.77 million tons for the first half of the 2018/2019 campaign. This is a 43% increase in the same period compared to 2017/2018.
Domestic and international sales have already reached 753,300 tons- an 18% increase from last year’s figures over the same period. Average monthly sales for the first half of the 2018/2019 olive campaign have reached 125,550 tons.
The US has proposed tariffs on EU olive oil imports worth $11billion, with 35% of EU olive oil shipped to the US. This would hit producers hard.
Italian virgin olive oil remains almost twice the price of Greek and Spanish oils.

A survey from Defra shows a reduction in production numbers.
A mild spring has encouraged grass growth but more rain is needed otherwise silage yields become a challenge again.
Skimmed milk powder prices increase following the disposal of EU intervention stocks.

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